You are here: Home Breaking news Eurozone growth a silver lining but clouds remain
Document Actions

Eurozone growth a silver lining but clouds remain

16 May 2008, 22:59 CET

(BRUSSELS) - The eurozone economy burst out of the doldrums in the first quarter thanks to an astonishing boom in Germany, official figures showed Thursday, but analysts and officials warned storm clouds still hovered.

The growth in the 15 countries sharing the euro hit 0.7 percent, an initial estimate from the European Union's Eurostat data agency showed, beating both economists' predictions and 0.4-percent growth registered in the last quarter of 2007.

The latest figure was boosted by quarterly growth of 1.5 percent in Germany, its highest rate for 12 years, which analysts attributed in part to mild January and February weather.

But UBS analyst Martin Lueck counselled caution.

"Despite the positive surprise contained in today's numbers, it is important to realise that they are a look in the rear mirror.

"Going forward, we expect the euro area economy to slow," he said, adding that the slowdown was not expected to hit rock-bottom until the second quarter.

Separate French data also pointed to unexpected underlying resilience, with the economy growing faster than thought last year, by 2.1 percent after seasonal adjustment, rather than 1.9 percent.

The heartening figures were greeted by an IMF warning that the storm wasn't over, amid weaker business confidence, a slowdown in orders, a strong euro and soaring oil prices, all coupled with the US sub-prime mortgage crisis.

IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn, speaking in Brussels, declared that while the worst of the financial sector crisis might be over the impact on the broader economy would likely drag on in the coming months.

"The main problem is the linkages between the financial crisis and the real economy and this is not behind us," he added, estimating the impact of the financial turmoil to weigh on economic activity for another "several quarters."

Howard Archer, an economist at Global Insight, echoed the "let's not get carried away by the good figures" mantra.

"Indeed bad news is increasingly coming now, indicating that the eurozone economy is buckling under tight credit conditions, a very strong euro, elevated oil, commodity and food prices, and slowing growth in key export markets," he said

But some basking in the figures was inevitable, especially in relation to Europe's transatlantic cousins.

The seasonally adjusted eurozone first-quarter rate over 12 months was put at 2.2 percent, the same as that recorded in the previous quarter.

That figure dwarfs the growth shown in the US economy, where fears of recession are rife and the annual pace of growth in the first quarter was just 0.6 percent.

For the 27-nation EU as a whole the first quarter growth was also 0.7 percent, compared to 0.5 percent in the previous quarter.

The outstanding component, Germany's first-quarter growth figure of 1.5 percent, compared to just 0.3 percent the previous quarter, should also be taken with a pinch of salt, according to Holger Schmieding of the Bank of America.

This "wunder" figure "vastly overestimates the underlying trend," as it is based in part on mild weather in January and February and inadequately recorded Christmas shopping figures, he argued.

Despite the good growth figures, inflation in the eurozone remained undesirably high at 3.3 percent in April, the EU's top economic official said on Tuesday, confirming a first official estimate.

"The figure of inflation ... is 3.3 percent is higher than we want," EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia told reporters on the sidelines of a conference in Brussels, though the rate was down from the record 3.6 percent seen in March.

Despite the lower overall rate, inflation remained far above the European Central Bank's comfort level, which it defines as just below 2.0 percent on an annual basis.

The estimated inflation fall in April should be "treated with caution," the ECB warned. "Ongoing upward pressure on consumer energy prices, and further processed food price increases cannot be excluded," it said in its monthly report.

Further details - Eurostat

Text and Picture Copyright 2008 AFP. All other Copyright 2008 EUbusiness Ltd. All rights reserved. This material is intended solely for personal use. Any other reproduction, publication or redistribution of this material without the written agreement of the copyright owner is strictly forbidden and any breach of copyright will be considered actionable.




Cache EUB's Breaking News Portlet as HTML
ECTACO translators
ECTACO iTRAVL NTL & Alpine series translators
Sponsor this channel
Cache EUB's Upcoming Events Portlet as HTML
Text links
Text links
Your link here