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EU forecasts Germany, Britain, Spain headed for recession

10 September 2008, 18:14 CET

(BRUSSELS) - European economic heavyweights Germany, Britain and Spain are headed for recession this year, the European Commission forecast on Wednesday.

The European Union's executive arm estimated that the three countries would see two consecutive quarters of economic contraction over the course of this year, which is how economists define a recession.

The 15-nation eurozone was forecast to avert recession, although by the narrowest of margins.

After contracting 0.5 percent, the German economy -- the biggest in Europe -- would see activity retreat a further 0.2 percent in the third quarter, according to the commission.

For the whole of 2008, the commission forecast that the German economy would expand 1.8 percent, unchanged from its last estimate dating from April.

Buffetted by a wobbly housing market and turmoil on financial markets, Britain would see economic activity contract by 0.2 percent in both the third and fourth quarters.

That would bring growth in Britain, which is not a member of the eurozone, for the whole of 2008 to 1.1 percent, down from an April forecast of 1.7 percent.

With a long housing boom turning to bust, Spain would see its economy contract by 0.1 percent in the third quarter and 0.3 percent in the final three months of the year.

The commission slashed its 2008 growth forecast for Spain to 1.4 percent, down from its April estimate of 2.2 percent.

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