Slovakia: Country Economic Forecast 2012

19 January 2010
by marketresearch -- last modified 16 July 2012

This report contains detailed economic forecasts and analysis for Slovakia.

Price EUR 141.39 Publisher Oxford Economics Publication date 04 January 2012 Available from Dispatched and sold by marketresearch.

Abstract

The financial crisis in the Eurozone continues to take its toll on Slovakia's economy. In Q3, domestic demand shrank by 1.7% according to national accounts data released in December. While GDP actually rose 0.7% from Q2, this was due largely to import volumes contracting by 3.1% in the period. Although we expect GDP to have risen by 3% in 2011 as a whole, growth is forecast to slow to just 1.1% in 2012. External demand has weakened sharply, with export volumes falling 2% in Q3. And given the possibility of a further worsening of the Eurozone financial crisis, there is clearly a risk that exports could continue to decline in 2012. Weak external demand will directly affect Slovakia's industrial sector. We expect industrial output to grow by just 2.4% in 2012, after an estimated 6.4% in 2011. The slowdown in the manufacturing sector has implications for the labour market. We expect the unemployment rate to average 14.2% in 2012 as growth remains sluggish, up from 13.4% in 2011. As well as being depressed by the weak economic background, consumer spending continues to be affected by high inflation, which at 4.8% in November on the EU-harmonised measure is well above the Eurozone average of 3%. Consumption is expected to grow by just 0.1% in 2012.

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